A Career Built on Timing and Territory

When I launched MX Properties over three decades ago, I learned quickly that success in real estate often comes down to one thing: timing. Being in the right market, at the right moment, with the right type of development—it’s part strategy, part instinct, and part hard-won experience.

In Florida, where change is constant and growth comes fast, this timing is even more critical. I’ve had the privilege of developing in some of the state’s top-performing submarkets—before they were hot. Places like St. Johns County, Winter Garden, North Port, and Clermont weren’t always booming. But if you knew what to look for, you could see the momentum building well before it made headlines.

Today, I want to share what I call the Florida Formula—a mix of data points, local indicators, and street-level observations I use to identify emerging submarkets before everyone else. Whether you’re an investor, broker, or junior developer looking to sharpen your instincts, these are the signs that a breakout market is on the horizon.

1. Follow the Roofs: Housing Permits and Population Growth

The most reliable indicator of future commercial demand is residential growth. When the rooftops go up, the restaurants, gas stations, and grocery stores follow.

Florida has consistently ranked among the top states for net in-migration, and this growth isn’t just confined to the big metros like Miami and Orlando. In fact, the real action is happening just outside the city limits—where land is cheaper, and developers can move faster.

Look for:

• Sharp increases in single-family home permits
  
• New master-planned communities breaking ground
  
• Expansion of school districts and new campus announcements
  

Places like Pace, Wildwood, and Parrish are textbook examples. Ten years ago, they were considered peripheral. Now, they’re anchored by Publix centers and attracting national QSR brands by the dozen.

2. Infrastructure Investment Is the Canary in the Coal Mine

Before the people come, the roads, utilities, and transportation upgrades usually do.

One of my favorite tools is the FDOT 5-Year Work Program. It’s a treasure trove of planned highway expansions, interchange upgrades, and connector roads—all of which tell you where the state expects growth. If you see a previously quiet area getting a new overpass or road widening, take a second look.

Similarly, regional airports, new intermodal logistics centers, and hospital expansions are major indicators that a submarket is about to evolve. In places like Ocala and Brooksville, we saw these moves long before major retailers arrived.

3. Chain Migration of National Brands

When one national brand enters a submarket, it might be an experiment. When several enter in quick succession—it’s a land grab.

At MX Properties, we track brand expansion strategies closely. When Chick-fil-A, Starbucks, and Wawa all start circling a new area, it means their research departments see what we see: favorable demographics, commuter density, and spending potential.

Look for clusters of:

• QSR site announcements
  
• Self-storage builds
  
• Express car washes
  
• Grocery chains testing second or third locations
  

These players are data-driven. If they’re moving in, it’s usually a sign that demand is either there—or imminent.

4. Retail Gaps and Underserved Trade Areas

Sometimes, the best submarkets aren’t the ones exploding—but the ones that are quietly underserved. I call these “retail deserts in waiting.”

When a large residential area lacks convenient access to basic services—groceries, fuel, healthcare—you’ve found a gap in the market. It’s especially common in newer suburban areas where housing has outpaced commercial development.

Use tools like:

• Drive-time retail analysis (how far residents travel for essentials)
  
• Grocery void maps
  
• Cell phone mobility data to analyze traffic flows
  

If you find 10,000–15,000 people within a 3-mile radius with no major grocer, bank, or pharmacy—you’ve found a submarket with legs.

5. Talk to the Locals (They Know Before the Reports Do)

Here’s the secret weapon no spreadsheet can replace: local knowledge.

Get out and drive the area. Talk to city planners. Ask builders, brokers, and bankers what they’re seeing on the ground. Real insight often comes from casual conversation, not costly data subscriptions.

For example, I once learned about a new charter school development during a breakfast meeting with a county engineer. That project went on to anchor a community that became one of our best-performing retail centers.

Zoning changes, site plan applications, and small infrastructure projects often tell the real story before the major announcements happen.

The Gut Check: What Experience Teaches You

Over time, you start to develop a gut instinct. A feeling when you step onto a site, see the layout of the roads, the traffic signals going in, and the new subdivision signs on every corner.

You can’t fake that experience—but you can sharpen your instincts by doing the reps: driving markets, watching trends, and learning from every deal—good or bad.

At MX Properties, we’ve made our best moves by combining hard data with human intuition. That’s the Florida Formula. It’s part science, part art. And it’s something you refine project after project, year after year.

Be Early, Be Ready

The best submarkets aren’t the ones you read about in headlines. They’re the ones that don’t have headlines yet. The ones where the dirt still looks cheap, the demand is quietly building, and the competition hasn’t arrived.

That’s where opportunity lives. And if you know how to spot it early, you’re not just building a project—you’re building momentum that can carry your portfolio for years.

So get in the car. Read the permit reports. Talk to the site guys. And trust your gut—because in Florida, the next breakout market is always just a few exits down the road.

And if you find it first? You win. Simple as that.